> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.veridexapp.fun/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Veridex Current Limitations and Honest Platform Scope

> What Veridex does not yet claim: no real-money orders placed, no proven alpha, unanchored runs, and features that are designed but not yet wired.

These limitations are stated precisely because honesty is a core design principle of Veridex. The platform is built to prove both wins and non-wins, and a clear record of what has not yet been demonstrated is as important as what has.

<Note>
  A trustworthy "no executable edge yet" is part of what Veridex ships.
</Note>

***

## Real-Money Trading

**No real-money order has been placed yet.**

The `live_guarded` execution surface is built, reviewed, and fail-closed. The path to real money requires every gate in the live-money conjunction to be open simultaneously. The first 1-share FAK smoke is deliberately a human operator's decision — not the platform's. No agent, no HTTP call, and no API parameter can arm real-money execution.

Specifically:

* The API deliberately passes no live dependencies. `POST /competitions/{id}/start` calls `start_competition(...)` with no `live_deps` argument. Real execution is operator-direct-only, by construction.
* `live_ready` requires two operator-verified confirmations (the on-chain neg-risk approval and a 1-share FAK smoke) to be explicitly set. A preflight that merely "didn't object" is not consent.
* Two independent locks must open: the route arm gate and the adapter's own lock. The money gate does not trust the routing layer.

***

## Trading Edge

**No executable venue edge has been demonstrated.**

Veridex ran two end-to-end experiments on real World Cup data. Both results are recorded honestly in the research log.

### Run-001: Candidate CLV Signal

The `CumulativeDriftAgent` averaged **+61.19 bps CLV** across 18 World Cup fixtures (market-quality-filtered eligible universe, pre-kickoff decisions, CLV vs the CON-040 kickoff close), beating all three acting deterministic baselines on this sample (favorite +4.61 bps, threshold-move −126.5 bps, seeded-random −341.67 bps), net-positive on 10 of 18 fixtures.

This is a **candidate rung-1 CLV signal, not proven executable alpha**:

* CLV is measured against the sharp TxLINE close with no venue leg.
* The effective sample is approximately 18 fixtures (the \~19.7k drift picks are autocorrelated intra-match).
* This result is *directional evidence, not a statistical proof*.

**This result did not survive out-of-sample testing.** The surviving OU-totals sub-signal falsified on its own metric (in-sample +162 bps → out-of-sample −254 bps, fixture-clustered) and came out NULL on independent settled outcomes at only **N=2 effective fixtures**. It is kept as a benchmark, not a promoted edge.

### Run-002: No Executable Venue Edge Demonstrated

Run-002 tested whether Run-001's candidate signal translated into Polymarket venue edge. The rung-2 venue lane works — it priced 94.7% of drift's in-scope 1X2 decisions against time-aligned Polymarket mids under a bounded-staleness bound. But the estimated-mids result was a near-perfect **monotonic longshot ramp** (+607 bps on 0–20% probability longshots decaying to +33 bps on 80–100% favorites) — the fingerprint of a favorite-longshot / de-margin-scale divergence, not strategy-specific dislocation.

**Run-002 did NOT demonstrate executable venue edge.** These are estimated mids, not fills. `real_executable_edge_bps = None`. No profit and no fillability claim.

***

## Solana Anchoring

* **Not all runs are anchored.** Anchoring requires `SOLANA_KEYPAIR_PATH` and `anchor=true`. Offline replay runs receive an honest `anchor_status="not_anchored"` and the `anchor` check reads `not_applicable`, never a false green.
* **Anchored runs store the run-manifest hash only.** The manifest hash is committed to Solana as a Memo transaction. Detailed evidence (sealed run events, score rows, receipts) remains off-chain.
* **Only Solana devnet is currently supported.** Mainnet anchoring is not yet built. The two on-chain transactions referenced in the README (TxLINE `subscribe` and the run-manifest anchor) are both on Solana devnet.

***

## Custody and Payouts

**The Prize Vault is designed and visible in the UI but not wired.** No payouts have been made. The UI labels this state explicitly — no fabricated payout data appears anywhere in the product.

***

## Operator Steps Not Yet Completed

The following steps remain ahead before real-money execution is possible. Each requires a human operator acting directly — no automated path can substitute.

| Step                                                     | Status                                       |
| -------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------- |
| 1-share FAK smoke (the `live_ready` prerequisite)        | Not yet executed                             |
| Wallet funding and USDC/CTF on-chain approvals           | Not yet completed                            |
| Postgres `AgentInstance` round-trip on first real deploy | Not yet rehearsed against a production store |

Full details are in the operator runbook (available to operators separately).

***

## Effective Sample Size and Statistical Significance

* The real-fixture backtest used 18 World Cup fixtures.
* Sub-signals have smaller effective N. The OU-totals sub-signal collapses to approximately 2 effective fixtures (match totals), which is the primary reason the out-of-sample test was underpowered.
* Statistical significance has not been established for any result reported by the platform.

***

## Raw Data

Real-fixture ReplayPacks (licensed TxLINE odds history) stay local and are not redistributed. Only synthetic packs are included in the repo. The demo script (`scripts/demo_phase2d.py`) self-labels synthetic data on every surface — pack manifest, console summary, and proof card.

***

## Summary Table

| Area                 | What is built                                | What is not yet done                                                         |
| -------------------- | -------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Real-money execution | `live_guarded` surface built and fail-closed | No real order placed; 1-share smoke is a human decision                      |
| Trading edge         | Candidate rung-1 CLV signal (Run-001)        | No proven executable alpha; OOS falsified; `real_executable_edge_bps = None` |
| Solana anchoring     | Devnet anchoring working (\~1.3 s confirm)   | Mainnet not built; not all runs are anchored                                 |
| Custody/payouts      | Prize Vault visible in UI                    | Not wired; no payouts made                                                   |
| Postgres deploy      | In-memory store works end-to-end             | Postgres round-trip not rehearsed on a real deploy                           |